中小银行的债市江湖：17万亿交易背后的资产扩张“困局”

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing significance of bond trading for small and medium-sized banks in China, as they reshape their business structures and revenue sources amidst a stabilizing economy and declining interbank market interest rates [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Trading Activity - In July, the total bond trading amount for city and rural commercial banks exceeded 17.24 trillion yuan, marking a new monthly high since early 2025, surpassing the combined total of large and joint-stock banks [1][4]. - The trading volume for city commercial banks was approximately 10.92 trillion yuan, while rural commercial banks accounted for about 6.32 trillion yuan in July [4]. - The trading activity has shown a consistent upward trend since May, indicating that small and medium-sized banks are increasingly active in the bond market and are strategically increasing their bond allocations to capitalize on market fluctuations [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Asset Proportion - As of the end of March, 30 A-share listed banks had financial investments exceeding 30% of their total assets, reflecting a growing reliance on financial investments due to weak traditional business demand [5]. - For instance, Chongqing Bank's financial investment increased by 122.7 billion yuan within a year, while a city commercial bank in Zhejiang reported a financial investment ratio of 45.51%, indicating a shift in focus towards bond investments over lending [5]. - Eight banks, including Guiyang Bank and Shanghai Bank, have financial investments constituting over 40% of their total assets, showcasing a trend where small and medium-sized banks are increasingly prioritizing financial investments [5]. Group 3: Investment Income Trends - Among 42 A-share listed banks, half reported a year-on-year increase in investment income ranging from 20% to 90%, contributing significantly to their overall performance [6]. - The reliance on investment income is evident, but there are uncertainties regarding the sustainability of these earnings, as selling off old bonds may not provide long-term revenue support [6]. - Regulatory authorities have acknowledged the importance of bond investments for banks' asset composition, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to mitigate credit and interest rate risks [6][7].