非农“急刹车”后，华尔街再度集体“看空美元”

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased significantly due to weak non-farm payroll data, yet the actual decline of the US dollar has been less than anticipated. Major Wall Street banks are collectively bearish on the dollar, citing overvaluation and weak fundamentals as key reasons [1][6]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have published reports indicating that the long-term logic for a declining dollar remains intact, with significant short-selling potential still available [1][6]. - Following the non-farm data release, the downward momentum of the dollar was restrained due to the pressure on risk currencies and specific weaknesses in certain currencies, preventing a full release of the dollar's decline [3][9]. - Despite the muted response of the dollar, Citigroup emphasizes that the logic for a dollar decline remains valid from a valuation perspective, with the euro currently undervalued and potential to overshoot to 1.20 against the dollar [7][9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs notes that the dollar's actual trade-weighted exchange rate is still 15% above its long-term average, while the US current account deficit stands at 4% of GDP, both of which are unfavorable for the dollar [9]. - Morgan Stanley highlights domestic policy uncertainties, particularly following the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, which adds downward pressure on the dollar [9]. Group 3: Short-term Catalysts - The dollar's next movements are expected to depend heavily on three potential catalysts: the nomination of a new Fed governor, changes in the leadership of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the upcoming CPI inflation report on August 12 [11][12]. - The nomination of Kugler's successor is seen as the most immediate catalyst, likely to be interpreted as dovish for the dollar if candidates like Walsh or Hassett are chosen [11]. - The leadership change at the BLS introduces uncertainty into upcoming employment data, which could lead to market speculation and positioning ahead of data releases [11].