2025年上半年我国钢材出口结构分化

Core Viewpoint - China's steel exports showed a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in certain categories like steel billets and construction materials, while flat steel exports faced pressure due to rising trade barriers and anti-dumping measures from various countries [1][3][12]. Export Performance - In June 2025, China's steel export volume was 9.68 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.5% but a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. Cumulatively, 58.15 million tons were exported in the first half of the year, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1]. - Asia remained the largest market for China's steel exports, with a total of 38.09 million tons exported to the region in the first half of 2025, of which 16.88 million tons went to Southeast Asia, accounting for 65.5% of exports to Asia, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1]. Regional Demand - Exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative showed significant growth, with exports to Africa reaching 7.94 million tons (up 33.3% year-on-year) and to Latin America at 7.79 million tons (up 21% year-on-year) [2]. - The demand in Africa and Latin America is driven by large infrastructure projects, with local production capacity insufficient to meet the needs [2]. Trade Barriers Impact - China's flat steel exports faced challenges, with a total of 36.32 million tons exported in the first half of 2025, while flat steel exports decreased by 0.4% year-on-year. The decline in specific products like hot-rolled thin wide steel strips was significant, with a 25.3% drop [3][6]. - Vietnam imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese hot-rolled products, leading to a 42.4% decrease in exports to Vietnam in the first half of 2025 [4]. Export Structure Changes - The export structure showed a clear divergence, with flat steel exports declining while steel billets, rebar, and wire rod saw substantial increases. Steel billets exports surged by 300.3%, driven by overseas infrastructure investments [6][12]. - The first half of 2025 saw a notable increase in exports of special steel bars, reaching 1.4 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 54.93%, attributed to strong demand in Southeast Asia and Latin America [10][11]. Future Outlook - The overall trend indicates that while flat steel exports may continue to face challenges due to trade barriers, the demand for steel billets and construction materials is expected to remain strong, particularly in emerging markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [12].