复旦大学王永钦 | 稳定币的“特里芬魔咒”：中国如何破局全球金融新秩序

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of stablecoins may exacerbate the shortage of U.S. Treasury securities, impacting global financial stability, and China should promote its bonds as a global safe asset to enhance the international status of the Renminbi and facilitate its internationalization [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are designed to improve upon cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but they fail to meet the three essential characteristics of money: singularity, elasticity, and integrity [1][4][11]. - The singularity of stablecoins is compromised as users may question the actual status of the underlying collateral during transactions [12]. - Elasticity is lacking in stablecoins since they do not create new liquidity but rather depend on existing liquidity [12]. - The integrity of stablecoins is also in doubt, as they are often used for illegal activities, undermining their credibility as a monetary tool [12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The growth of stablecoins increases the demand for U.S. Treasury securities, which are already in short supply, leading to higher prices and potential financial instability [2][8]. - The situation mirrors historical banking failures due to the scarcity of underlying safe collateral, highlighting a modern version of the "Triffin Dilemma" where global demand for safe assets conflicts with the U.S.'s ability to provide them [2]. - The need for a global safe asset is pressing, and China is encouraged to position its bonds as such to alleviate the shortage and bolster the Renminbi's international role [2]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The emergence of stablecoins is a response to the inefficiencies of traditional financial systems, particularly in cross-border payments and serving unbanked populations [8]. - The operational mechanism of stablecoins is similar to money market funds, which promise 1:1 redemption based on underlying safe assets like U.S. Treasury securities [9]. - However, the stability of these assets is not guaranteed, as evidenced by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which held significant amounts of U.S. Treasury securities but faced liquidity crises due to market volatility [10].