Eli Lilly: Sell LLY Stock Ahead of Its Earnings?

Core Insights - Eli Lilly is expected to report earnings of $5.59 per share and sales of $14.7 billion on August 7, 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous year's earnings of $3.92 per share and sales of $11.3 billion [3] - Historically, Eli Lilly's stock has shown a pattern of negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, with a 56% decrease rate over the past five years and a median decline of -3.1% [2][7] Financial Performance - Eli Lilly has a market capitalization of $685 billion, with $49 billion in revenue, $20 billion in operating profits, and a net income of $11 billion over the past twelve months [4] - The company has recorded 18 earnings data points in the last five years, with 8 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 44% occurrence of positive returns [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and analyze immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide their strategies [6] - A correlation analysis between short-term and medium-term returns can help traders identify suitable trades, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [8] Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Eli Lilly's stock reaction post-earnings, with historical data indicating that peer stock returns may impact pricing ahead of the earnings announcement [9]