东方雨虹(002271)：民建业务边际改善 提价函落地或提升利润率

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to lower market demand, with a slight improvement in the second quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year to 13.6 billion, and net profit fell by 40% to 560 million [1] - In 2Q25, revenue showed a 6% year-on-year decline but increased by 28% quarter-on-quarter to 7.6 billion, while net profit decreased by 38% year-on-year but rose by 93% quarter-on-quarter to 370 million [1] Group 2: Business Development Trends - The company is experiencing marginal improvement in its civil construction business and is expanding its overseas market presence [2] - In 1H25, revenue from retail, engineering, and direct sales channels decreased by 7%, 5%, and 28% respectively, totaling 5.1 billion, 6.3 billion, and 2 billion [2] - The engineering and retail channels now account for approximately 84% of total revenue, with civil construction revenue growing over 10% year-on-year in 2Q25 [2] - The company is leveraging its waterproofing business to develop a nationwide channel network, with non-waterproof products like powder achieving rapid growth [2] - The company has successfully completed initial production trials at its Malaysia facility and signed a share purchase agreement for the acquisition of Construmart in Chile [2] Group 3: Margin and Cost Management - The company's overall gross margin decreased by 3.8 percentage points year-on-year to 25.4% in 1H25, primarily due to price reductions in engineering and civil construction products [3] - In 2Q25, the gross margin improved by 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 26.7%, driven by the first round of price increases in construction products and a higher proportion of high-margin civil construction projects [3] - The company is expected to continue improving its gross margin in 2H25 as price increases for civil construction projects are implemented [3] Group 4: Cash Flow and Expense Management - The company has been focusing on reducing costs, resulting in a marginal improvement in net operating cash flow, which was -400 million in 1H25, an improvement from -1.3 billion in the same period last year [4] - The expense ratio for 1H25 was 17%, down by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with reductions in sales, management, and R&D expenses [4] - The impact of credit impairment on profit was 430 million in 1H25, with a reduction to 290 million in 2Q25, leading to an operating profit margin of approximately 8.6% after adjusting for impairment [4] Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Due to slightly lower-than-expected demand, the company has adjusted its shipment volume assumptions but maintains the 2025 EPS forecast at 0.55 yuan [5] - The 2026 EPS forecast has been reduced by 11% to 0.75 yuan, with the current stock price corresponding to 23x and 17x P/E for 2025 and 2026 respectively [5] - The company maintains an outperform rating with a target price of 16 yuan, implying a potential upside of 28% based on 29x and 21x P/E for 2025 and 2026 respectively [5]