特朗普想让美联储大幅降息？先得过FOMC票委这关

Core Viewpoint - The focus on monetary policy decision-making is increasing due to President Trump's calls for significant interest rate cuts and his influence over the Federal Reserve's leadership [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump is expected to appoint a replacement for Fed Governor Kugler, who is resigning early, potentially influencing the Fed's direction on interest rates [1]. - If Powell resigns at the end of his term in May 2026, Trump will have another opportunity to fill a vacancy, which could lead to a majority of Trump-appointed members on the Fed Board [2][3]. - The appointment of new members could give the new chair significant leverage to pursue their agenda, but local Fed presidents are likely to vote based on macroeconomic conditions rather than political influence [3]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics and Economic Considerations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires a majority vote to change interest rates, emphasizing the need for economic rather than political justification for any rate cuts [1][2]. - Recent voting showed a 9-2 decision to maintain the current interest rate, indicating the importance of consensus among committee members [1]. - The upcoming voting members from regional Fed banks may present resistance to politically influenced decisions, focusing instead on economic fundamentals [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Potential Rate Cuts - Predictions indicate that at least two rate cuts may occur in 2025, with the potential for increased support for cuts if labor market conditions worsen [5]. - Concerns about the credibility of the next chair could lead to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates if consensus is not achieved [5].