降息预期下，美股小盘股有望接棒 “拥挤”的科技股交易？

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing upward trend of large U.S. tech stocks may be approaching a turning point, with historical data suggesting a market style shift towards lower-valued, less actively traded small-cap stocks as the Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent weak U.S. employment data has significantly increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and expectations for three cuts by January next year [1]. - Following the rise in rate-cut expectations, the Nasdaq 100 index, primarily composed of tech stocks, fell by 2%, while the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.6%. In contrast, the S&P 500 equal-weight index only declined by 1%, indicating stronger resilience [1]. Group 2: Historical Trends - Historical data compiled by Jefferies shows that during Fed rate-cutting periods, the S&P 500 equal-weight index typically outperforms the traditional market-cap weighted S&P 500 index, with average outperformance of 0.6%, approximately 4%, and 12.5% over one, two, and four years respectively [2]. - The current market environment is characterized by a record high weight of tech stocks in the indices, suggesting a potential shift away from these stocks as the Fed adopts a more dovish stance [2]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The "crowded" nature of tech stocks and their high valuations are significant reasons for the cautious outlook on their future performance. The S&P 500 information technology sector has risen by 13% this year, driven by the AI boom, outpacing the S&P 500 index's 7.6% and the equal-weight index's 4.9% [3]. - Jefferies reports that the top decile of S&P 500 stocks has a projected P/E ratio of 36, while the bottom decile has a median P/E of only 10, resulting in a valuation gap of 26, which is at the 87th percentile historically since 2009 [3]. Group 4: Fundamental Strength - Despite the emerging rotation risks, the fundamentals of large tech companies remain robust, with the communication and technology sectors showing the strongest earnings growth during the current earnings season [5]. - Jefferies emphasizes that the outlook does not predict a "massive sell-off" in tech stocks, indicating that the potential market shift may reflect a style rotation rather than a systemic market collapse [5].