开源证券：A股仍有再创新高的可能

Group 1 - The depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the RMB are attracting foreign capital back to China, while domestic savings are partially moving to the stock market [1][12] - The US Federal Reserve's probability of interest rate cuts in September has significantly increased, with expectations rising from below 40% to 89.6% after disappointing non-farm payroll data [5] - China is set to impose value-added tax on newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, which may increase long-term bond yields and enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets to foreign investors [9] Group 2 - The Chinese government is committed to stabilizing the market, with the Central Huijin Investment Company acting as a "national team" to support the capital market by increasing ETF holdings [5][6] - A joint initiative by six departments aims to promote long-term capital inflow into the stock market, with state-owned insurance companies expected to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025, potentially bringing in over 500 billion RMB annually [7] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights key industries for investment, including technology, finance, agriculture, and energy, with specific focus on sectors like robotics, semiconductors, and renewable energy [18][24] Group 3 - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend driven by incremental capital, with a focus on quality stocks across various sectors despite short-term market fluctuations [2][33] - The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed significant gains in July, with average daily trading volume reaching 1.6 trillion RMB [3] - The market is expected to see a rebound after a period of correction, with opportunities in sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and domestic self-sufficiency [2][33]