马云预言成真？如果不出意外，2025年下半年房地产将发生重大转变

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with average housing prices dropping over 30% and some cities experiencing declines of over 60% from historical highs [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices in second and third-tier cities have already seen significant declines, while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are expected to follow suit, indicating a potential "correction" in these markets [8]. - The current housing market is characterized by an oversupply, with approximately 600 million residential units available, which could accommodate 3 billion people if each unit housed five individuals [4]. - The economic downturn has led to reduced incomes and increased unemployment, making it difficult for many to sustain high housing prices [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - An increasing number of young people are opting to rent rather than buy homes due to the financial burden of high property prices and the associated long-term mortgage commitments [11]. - The rental market is perceived as more financially viable for young individuals, allowing them to save money while waiting for housing prices to align more closely with local incomes [11]. Group 3: Policy and Supply - The government is expected to accelerate the introduction of affordable housing, with a plan to provide 6 million units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units annually [13]. - The shift towards selling existing homes rather than pre-sold properties is anticipated to increase, allowing buyers to inspect homes before purchasing, which may alleviate some market pressures [12].