降息预期利好人民币、黄金

Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a significant drop in employment, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below the expected 104,000, and revisions in June and May data resulted in a total loss of 258,000 jobs over two months [3][4][5] - The report has raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 75%, influencing asset allocation strategies, including the outlook for the Chinese yuan and gold [2][5] - The downward revision of employment data is the largest in two months since 1968, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the poor employment data, the stock market only experienced a one-day pullback, as strong earnings reports from major tech companies boosted investor sentiment [6][7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, with a potential 50 basis point cut if August employment data worsens [6] - Morgan Stanley expresses increased confidence in the stock market for the next 12 months, citing strong earnings from large tech firms and a potential end to the rolling earnings recession that began in early 2022 [6][7] Group 3: Currency and Gold Outlook - The U.S. dollar index fell back to the 98 range following the non-farm report, with expectations of a weaker dollar benefiting U.S. corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [8] - Predictions for the Chinese yuan remain mixed, with potential downward pressure due to tariffs and a shift in policy focus towards inflation [9][10] - Gold prices have seen a boost, rising to around $3,400 per ounce, driven by expectations of rate cuts and ongoing central bank demand, despite a slight slowdown in purchases in the second quarter [11][12]