一份牛市操作指南~

Group 1 - The market has the potential to enter a bull phase, supported by the influx of external funds, as indicated by the "household savings / total stock market value" ratio, which is currently at 1.8, down from over 2 last September [1][3] - A significant amount of high-interest deposits from 2022-2023 will mature in the second half of this year and into next year, with the likelihood of these funds being redirected into the market through "fixed income+" products [3][6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates next year, which would be favorable for the stock market [8][10] Group 2 - The current market conditions suggest a "water bull" scenario, reminiscent of the bull market from 2013 to 2015, where small-cap and growth stocks are likely to benefit the most [10][12] - The shift in market style indicates a high probability of growth stocks outperforming value stocks, as the current underperformance of growth stocks is comparable to the end of 2018 [13][20] - Historical data shows that after the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3600 points, significant pullbacks are common, indicating high volatility in the current market [15][17] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a "bull market mindset," focusing on holding positions during pullbacks rather than selling prematurely, as the market may experience fluctuations above 3600 points [22][23] - Two key indicators for exiting positions include the "household savings / total stock market value" ratio approaching 1.3 and the rolling three-year annualized return of the mixed equity fund index reaching 30% [23][25] - The current return of the mixed equity fund index is at -1.9%, suggesting there is still room for growth before reaching critical exit points [25][27] Group 4 - The market saw a slight increase today, closing at 3617.6 points, with significant contributions from the banking and insurance sectors, which rose by 1.52% and 1.25% respectively [29][32] - The banking sector's rebound after touching the 60-day moving average has helped lift the index back above 3600 points, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [33][36] - Overall, the market is transitioning from previously high-performing sectors to those that have recently corrected, with a focus on large-cap stocks like banks and liquor, which are crucial for sustaining the bullish atmosphere [39][43]