OPEC+或考虑新一轮增产 特朗普关税将如何影响市场

Group 1 - OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, leading to a decline in international oil prices by over 5% in two days due to concerns over supply-demand balance and tariff threats [1][2] - OPEC+ supplies about 45% of the world's oil and has been increasing production since April to regain market share after pandemic-related cuts, with oil prices rebounding nearly 10% from April's low due to seasonal demand [2] - Analysts are closely monitoring OPEC+'s unused production capacity, with no clear signals yet on whether this capacity will be deployed, despite the potential for further supply increases [2] Group 2 - The U.S. tariffs on imports from various economies, including Canada and India, could impact global economic growth, which is projected to slow from 3.3% last year to 3% by 2025, affecting energy demand [3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a disappointing increase of 73,000 jobs in July, raising concerns about future economic performance, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.7 million barrels, indicating weaker domestic demand [3] - The potential for secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers poses a significant risk to supply, with predictions that it could affect 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian maritime oil exports [3][4] Group 3 - India's oil imports from Russia increased to approximately 1.75 million barrels per day in the first half of the year, despite pressure to change policy, with indications that India is seeking to diversify its oil sources [5] - India's largest refiner, IOC, has recently purchased 7 million barrels of oil from the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East, indicating a shift in strategy to replace Russian oil [5]