Ge Long Hui·2025-08-05 18:47Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's July sales data shows a significant year-on-year decline of 39.7%, indicating pressure on its extended-range series and a need for substantial upgrades to enhance product competitiveness [1] Sales Performance - In July 2023, Li Auto sold 30,731 vehicles, a decrease of 39.7% year-on-year [1] - Cumulative sales from January to July 2023 reached 235,000 units, down 2.2% year-on-year [1] Product Launch and Strategy - The company recently launched its second pure electric model, the i8, with three configurations priced at 321,800, 349,800, and 369,800 yuan [1] - The i8's pricing strategy is conservative, aligning closely with the L8 model, and lacks certain high-demand features that competitors offer [2] - The i8's delivery strategy may affect customer commitment, as there are no additional cash incentives for customers upgrading their orders [3] Competitive Landscape - The i8 faces competition from newly launched models such as the Aito M8 and the Leado L90, which may divert potential customers due to their pricing and features [3] - Despite the competitive pressure, the i8 boasts advantages like dual-motor all-wheel drive and superior battery capacity compared to some competitors [3] Future Outlook - Li Auto has demonstrated strong error correction capabilities, with past models improving significantly after initial underperformance [4] - The upcoming i6 model, set to launch in September 2025, targets a broader market segment and is expected to strengthen Li Auto's position in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price range [4] - The company has established a robust charging network with 3,000 supercharging stations across 31 provinces and 258 cities, leading the industry in self-built high-speed charging stations [4] Financial Projections - Adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are made to 7.7 billion, 12.1 billion, and 17 billion yuan, reflecting the anticipated sales pressure on the L series and lower-than-expected market feedback for the i8 [5] - Despite the downward revision in profit forecasts, the company's strong error correction ability and recent valuation adjustments support a "recommended" rating [5]