7月份，二手房的成交量和成交价格，都在下跌！

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in major cities continued to decline in July, with transaction volumes dropping further, reflecting a complex situation in the real estate market and raising concerns about the market trend for the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the transaction volume of second-hand houses decreased by 4% year-on-year, a decline greater than the 3% drop in June [1] - In first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the decline in transaction volume is relatively mild due to the irreplaceable quality of educational resources and the value retention of properties in core locations [3] - In contrast, second-tier cities such as Zhengzhou and Wuhan experienced a more significant cooling in the second-hand housing market, with year-on-year declines ranging from 5% to 8% [3] - Third and fourth-tier cities faced even greater pressure, with some cities seeing declines exceeding 10% and an increasing inventory digestion cycle [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - The decline in the second-hand housing market is attributed to several factors, including policy influences, such as the central government's acknowledgment of significant changes in the real estate market supply-demand relationship [5] - Some cities tightened second-hand housing transaction tax policies in July, which has suppressed market sentiment [5] - A strong wait-and-see attitude among buyers is a key reason for the continued low transaction volume, influenced by employment pressures and income expectations [7] - The ongoing promotional policies in the new housing market have diverted some demand away from second-hand homes [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The number of second-hand housing listings in multiple cities has risen, with cities like Chongqing and Chengdu seeing increases of over 30% year-on-year [9] - The influx of second-hand housing listings has enhanced buyers' bargaining power, leading to price reductions by sellers [9] - In July, the average transaction price of second-hand homes decreased by 0.5% compared to June, with the decline expanding by 0.2% [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts in the real estate industry believe that the market may gradually stabilize in August following the clarification of national policies at the end of July [11] - There are expectations for more cities to optimize purchase and sale restrictions and reduce transaction taxes, along with increased financial support from commercial banks for reasonable housing consumption [11] - However, restoring market confidence will take time, and transaction volumes may remain low in the short term [11] - Overall, the decline in transaction volume and prices in July reflects both short-term market pressures and long-term transformation characteristics of the real estate industry [13] - It is anticipated that the second-hand housing market may exhibit a "first decline, then rise" trend in the second half of the year as policy effects become evident and the market adjusts [13]