美国7月ISM服务业PMI仅50.1，就业萎缩，价格创2022年10月新高

Core Viewpoint - The ISM services PMI data indicates a stagnating U.S. services sector due to weak demand and rising costs, leading to a reduction in workforce [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data Analysis - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July is reported at 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8, indicating near stagnation [1]. - The new orders index has dropped to 50.3, approaching a standstill [2]. - The employment index has decreased to 46.4, marking the fourth contraction in five months and one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [2]. Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The prices index for raw materials and services has risen to 69.9, the highest level since October 2022 [2]. - Backlogged orders have decreased for the fifth consecutive month, and inventory expansion has slowed, with the inventory sentiment index falling nearly 4 points to 53.2, the lowest since October of the previous year [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Market Reaction - Analysts suggest that the ISM PMI data reflects a weak U.S. services economy grappling with higher tariffs, cautious consumer attitudes, and uncertainties from government policies [4]. - Following the PMI data release, U.S. stock markets turned negative, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 0.7% after previously gaining [5]. - The divergence between the ISM services PMI and the stronger Markit services PMI, which reported a final value of 55.7, indicates contrasting economic signals [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall business sentiment has declined, with manufacturing and services confidence weakening, suggesting potential downward risks for growth in the coming months [9]. - Despite the current economic challenges, there are indications of a potential rebound in growth driven by increased demand in the technology sector and financial services [8].