Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-05 22:47Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually bottom out as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand has decreased on a month-on-month basis, with total inventory shifting to accumulation. Last week, the apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.5203 million tons, down 161,000 tons from the previous week [2]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.6742 million tons, an increase of 4,500 tons week-on-week, while total inventory reached 13.5189 million tons, up 153,900 tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, while electric furnace operating rates increased to 62.82% [2]. Profitability Insights - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 351.8 yuan, up 21.7 yuan week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit averaged 237.8 yuan, down 6.3 yuan [3]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73% from the previous week [3]. Future Outlook - Demand is expected to stabilize, with a decrease in the negative impact from the real estate sector and steady growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing [4]. - The steel industry has been in a loss phase since Q3 2022, with over 30% of steel companies still operating at a loss. However, market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge [4]. - If supply policies are enacted, the speed of supply contraction may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [4].