全球铜贸易格局面临重塑

Core Viewpoint - Copper is increasingly recognized as a critical raw material in the era of electrification and AI, with its importance growing in green energy transition, electrical manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and military applications [1][2]. Trade Policy Impact - On July 31, 2025, President Trump announced tariffs on copper imports, exempting refined copper but imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished products like copper pipes and wires, leading to an over 18% drop in COMEX copper prices, marking the largest single-day decline in history [1]. - Starting in 2027, refined copper may face phased tariffs beginning at 15% and rising to 30% by 2028, with a focus on protecting U.S. downstream manufacturing rather than directly supporting domestic mining and smelting [2]. U.S. Copper Supply and Demand - The U.S. has a significant shortfall in copper smelting capacity, with only two active smelting plants, leading to a domestic supply of refined copper at 87.1 million tons, far below the demand of 160.8 million tons [3]. - The U.S. aims to reduce its copper import dependency from 45% to 30% by 2035, emphasizing the strategic importance of copper for national interests [3]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - COMEX copper inventory has surged to 261,200 tons, a 180% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating a substantial stockpile that could meet U.S. consumption needs for 3-4 months without imports [4]. - The current shipping premium from the U.S. to Asia is $120 per ton, and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper has diminished, reducing the incentive for cross-market arbitrage [4]. Supply Chain Disruptions - Recent supply disruptions include a deadly earthquake at the El Teniente copper mine in Chile and protests by informal miners in Peru, impacting copper concentrate processing fees [5]. - Chinese smelting companies are expanding production despite global challenges, negotiating favorable processing fees with suppliers, while Japanese firms face declining profit margins [5]. Market Outlook - Current macroeconomic conditions, including weaker non-farm data and low manufacturing PMI in both the U.S. and China, suggest a subdued rebound in copper prices, although tight domestic inventory and overseas supply disruptions provide some support [6]. - Long-term prospects for copper remain positive due to its strategic importance in U.S.-China relations, with price targets set for domestic and international markets [6].