影响更多体现在利差层面

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading to notable increases in both stock and commodity markets since July [2] - The GDP growth rate has remained robust, exceeding 5% for three consecutive quarters, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] - The bond market has shown a bearish trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a peak of 1.73%, an increase of 10 basis points from early July [1] Group 2 - The recent meetings have indicated a shift towards more moderate language regarding the "anti-involution" policies, suggesting a reliance on market-driven methods rather than strict regulatory measures [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy that will impose VAT on newly issued bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which aims to correct tax burden discrepancies and enhance fiscal revenue [3] - The impact of the tax adjustment on the bond market is expected to be limited, with the focus shifting back to fundamental economic conditions [4] Group 3 - The economic landscape is characterized by a divergence in performance, with strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate [4] - The central bank has maintained a stable liquidity environment, effectively managing tax-related disruptions in July, and is expected to continue this trend in August [4] - The overall outlook for the bond market remains cautious, lacking strong upward momentum due to stable economic fundamentals and weakened expectations for significant monetary easing [4]