SHANXI SECURITIES(SZ:002500) Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-08-06 01:00Core Insights - The retail sales of gold and jewelry are expected to grow by 6.1% year-on-year by June 2025, indicating stable demand at the end-user level [1] Industry Summary - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption reached 505.205 tons, a decrease of 3.54% year-on-year [1] - Gold jewelry consumption fell significantly by 26.00% to 199.826 tons, while demand for gold bars and coins increased by 23.69% to 264.242 tons [1] - High gold prices have suppressed gold jewelry consumption, but products with lighter weight, strong design, and high added value remain popular, benefiting merchants' profitability [1] - Demand for gold bars remains strong, although profit margins are low [1] - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have enhanced gold's role as a safe-haven asset, leading to a substantial increase in demand for gold bars and coins for investment [1] - Industrial gold demand has shown a slight upward trend due to the recovery in gold salt demand [1] Company Recommendations - Companies with high certainty in mid-year performance are recommended for active monitoring, including Chao Hong Ji and Lao Pu Gold [1] - Attention is also suggested for Cai Bai Co., Ltd. and Man Ka Long [1] - Traditional gold and jewelry companies are expected to see improved same-store sales and a narrowing revenue decline in Q2, with current valuation levels being relatively low [1] - If the terminal market for gold and jewelry significantly recovers, these companies could benefit from their channel scale and franchise resources [1] - Stock selection should focus on product structure and tracking terminal sales turning points, with recommendations for Zhou Daxing, Lao Fengxiang, and Zhou Liu Fu [1]