Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-06 01:20Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Q2 earnings reports of Chinese internet giants are expected to show a divergent performance, with overall profits projected to decline by 10% year-on-year, marking the first drop since Q2 2022, primarily due to the struggles in e-commerce and local service platforms, while AI cloud services and gaming sectors are anticipated to provide support for some companies [1] Group 1: AI Cloud Business Growth - The AI cloud business of Chinese internet giants is expected to see significant acceleration in growth during Q2, with Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth forecasted to increase from 18% in Q1 to 23%, although still lagging behind Google Cloud's 32% and Microsoft Azure's 39% [2] - This growth is driven by a surge in AI inference demand and rapid development of AI applications, with ByteDance processing 15 trillion tokens daily in June, while Alibaba processes around 4-5 trillion tokens [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Intense Competition in Food Delivery - Intense competition in the food delivery market is a major drag on platform profits, with Alibaba's EBITA expected to decline by 16%, and Meituan and JD's EBIT projected to drop by 58% and 70%, respectively [4] - Alibaba's food delivery business is estimated to incur losses of 11 billion yuan in Q2, which may expand to 19 billion yuan in Q3, while JD's food delivery business is expected to lose over 10 billion yuan in Q2 [4] - The competition extends beyond traditional food delivery to instant shopping, with Alibaba's peak daily order volume reaching 15 million and Meituan's at 20 million, further intensifying market rivalry [4] Group 3: Performance Divergence Among Platforms - Despite overall profit pressures, gaming and ride-hailing sectors are expected to show strong growth, with Tencent projected to achieve an 11% revenue increase and a 15% adjusted EBIT growth in Q2 [5] - JD is expected to report a 16% revenue growth, significantly outperforming the overall retail sector, but its adjusted EBIT is forecasted to decline by 70% [5][6] - Didi is anticipated to maintain growth in a stable market environment, with a projected 8% revenue increase and a 32% adjusted EBIT growth [6]