商用车主动安全系统龙头IPO前夜：关联交易缠身、业绩波动添忧

Core Viewpoint - Ruike Kemi is accelerating its IPO process amid the rapid development of automotive intelligence, positioning itself as a leading enterprise in commercial vehicle active safety systems in China [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Ruike Kemi specializes in active safety systems for commercial vehicles, with core products including ABS, ESC, EBS, and EPB, applicable in commercial vehicles, passenger cars, and motorcycles [1] - The company has successfully passed the initial public offering (IPO) review and is set to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] Group 2: Financial Highlights - The IPO aims to raise 1.522 billion yuan, with plans to invest approximately 881 million yuan in the development and manufacturing headquarters for automotive intelligent electronic control systems in the Greater Bay Area [1] - Revenue for Ruike Kemi from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 1.326 billion yuan, 1.76 billion yuan, and 1.977 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -4.18%, 32.81%, and 12.32% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is expected to be 96.9647 million yuan, 236 million yuan, and 269 million yuan, with growth rates of -50.91%, 143.32%, and 14.07% respectively, indicating some volatility in operating performance [2] Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - The production capacity for the pneumatic electronic braking system is set at 120,000 units for 2024, with a projected utilization rate of 75.12%, up from 72.77% in 2023 [2] - The hydraulic electronic braking system's capacity is expected to increase from 75,000 units in 2023 to 90,000 units in 2024, with a utilization rate of 96.73% [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The commercial vehicle market is experiencing a downturn, with sales figures declining from 5.133 million units in 2020 to an estimated 3.873 million units in 2024, a decrease of 3.92% year-on-year [7] - The transition to new energy vehicles is significantly impacting traditional commercial vehicle demand, with new energy commercial vehicle sales expected to grow by 56.89% in the first half of 2025 [7] Group 5: Challenges and Risks - Ruike Kemi faces challenges such as high accounts receivable, low turnover rates, and a high proportion of inventory, with accounts receivable reaching 622 million yuan in 2022, accounting for 46.92% of revenue [15] - The company has a complex relationship with its controlling shareholder, Ruike Group, which has historically been a major customer and supplier, but the reliance on this relationship has decreased significantly in recent years [9][11] Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The active safety system market is highly concentrated, with international giants like ZF, Knorr, Bosch, and Continental dominating the market share, posing a challenge for Ruike Kemi to compete effectively [17] - The company is working to enhance its technological capabilities and product offerings to keep pace with the evolving market demands for integrated solutions in commercial vehicle safety systems [18]