中国企业出海，大而不强？

Core Viewpoint - The issue of Chinese companies "going abroad" has gained renewed attention due to the large-scale tariff wars initiated by Trump during his second term, highlighting its significance for both micro-level corporate strategies and macro-level national competitiveness [1] Group 1: Chinese Companies' "Going Abroad" Performance and Characteristics - "Going abroad" refers to domestic companies expanding internationally through various means such as trade exports and foreign direct investment (OFDI), with OFDI including greenfield investments and cross-border mergers and acquisitions [2] - In 2023, China's OFDI flow totaled $147.85 billion, accounting for 9.54% of global OFDI, ranking third after the United States and Japan [2] - Since China's accession to the WTO, OFDI growth has outpaced that of inward foreign direct investment (IFDI), with OFDI surpassing IFDI between 2015 and 2018 [2] - By 2024, China's OFDI stock represented 4.03% of the global total, trailing behind the United States and the Netherlands [2] Group 2: Investment Methods and Trends - From 2008 to 2017, cross-border mergers and acquisitions were nearly equal to greenfield investments in China's OFDI, but since 2018, greenfield investments have become increasingly significant, reaching 12% of global greenfield investments by 2023 [4] - In 2023, the primary sectors for China's OFDI included leasing and business services, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, financial services, mining, transportation, and scientific research, collectively accounting for over 90% [6] - The top destinations for China's OFDI in 2023 included Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States, with a notable 185.08% increase in investments to Mexico, indicating a strategic shift to circumvent tariffs [6][8] Group 3: Micro-Level Analysis of Chinese Multinational Corporations - Among the world's top 100 non-financial multinational corporations by foreign assets in 2023, eight were from China, including major state-owned enterprises, but their transnationality index (TNI) was relatively low, ranging from 4% to 37% [9] - The TNI of Chinese companies is significantly lower than that of U.S. companies, which average around 50%, indicating a lack of diversification in industries represented by Chinese firms [9][10] Group 4: Theoretical Frameworks and Challenges - The "three advantages" theory suggests that successful internationalization requires ownership advantages, internalization advantages, and location advantages, with OFDI being more demanding than other methods [23] - The heterogeneity in productivity among firms indicates that only the most productive firms are likely to engage in OFDI, as they can absorb the associated costs and risks [24] - The significant growth in Chinese companies' "going abroad" over the past two decades has been influenced by various factors, including government support, but there is a need for a transition from government-driven to market-driven internationalization strategies [25]