TNMG(SZ:000630) Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-08-06 02:31Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products by the U.S. has had a weaker-than-expected impact on China's copper prices, leading to significant gains in leading copper companies in China [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Leading copper companies such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals surged over 9%, Yunnan Copper rose more than 3%, and other companies like Jiangxi Copper and Northern Copper increased by over 2% [1]. - The ETF tracking leading non-ferrous metal companies, known as the Non-ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876), saw its price peak at 0.77% during trading, reflecting a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1]. Group 2: Tariff Impact Analysis - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on various semi-finished copper products starting August 1, but raw materials like cathode copper and scrap copper are exempt from these tariffs [3]. - Analysts believe the tariff's impact on domestic copper prices is limited, as only 30,000 tons of the 578,000 tons of copper imported by the U.S. in 2024 will come from China, accounting for just 5.2% [3]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly for gold, which is expected to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar and anticipated interest rate cuts [3]. - The copper market is expected to see a price increase due to constrained supply and resilient demand, with projections for gradual export openings and continuous demand growth [3]. Group 4: Sector Performance - As of July 31, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.91%, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [4]. - The current price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous metal index is at a historically low level of 2.36, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4]. Group 5: ETF Composition - The Non-ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds are diversified across various metals, with copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium making up significant portions of the index [6].