资源增厚与冶炼改善共振成长 铜陵有色(000630) 铜陵有色首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | 本报告导读： 铜陵有色受益于米拉多与新探矿权资源增厚及硫酸价格上涨，产业链协同优势凸显， 在铜价抬升期，业绩将持续增厚。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 137,454 | 145,531 | 170,402 | 198,288 | 206,338 | | (+/-)% | 12.8% | 5.9% | 17.1% | 16.4% ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 中东电解铝供应确定性收缩，关注左侧布局价值 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：美伊冲突持续，贵金属定价向通胀与利率 博弈切换 本周 COMEX 黄金下跌 0.05%至 4,489.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 2.89%至 69.77 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金下跌 3.90%至 998.66 元/克，SHFE 白银下跌 0.77%至 17,489.00 元/ 千克。 本周金银比下跌 2.86%至 64.35。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓减少 137,805.42 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 增加 5,162,058.80 盎司。 周一，美国 1 月营建支出月率 -0.3%，预期 0.10%，前值 由 0.30%修正为 0.8%。 周二，美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值 52.4，预期 51.3，前值 51.6。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值 51.1，预 期 51.5，前值 ...

►贵金属：美伊冲突持续，贵金属定价向通胀与利率 博弈切换 本周 COMEX 黄金下跌 0.05%至 4,489.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 2.89%至 69.77 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金下跌 3.90%至 998.66 元/克，SHFE 白银下跌 0.77%至 17,489.00 元/ 千克。 本周金银比下跌 2.86%至 64.35。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓减少 137,805.42 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 增加 5,162,058.80 盎司。 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周一，美国 1 月营建支出月率 -0.3%，预期 0.10%，前值 由 0.30%修正为 0.8%。 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 29 日 周二，美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值 52.4，预期 51.3，前值 51.6。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值 51.1，预 期 51.5，前值 51.7。美国 3 月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数 0，前 值-10。 [Table_Title] 中东电解铝供应确定性收缩，关注左侧布局价值 [Table_Title2] ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 15.08% over the past two weeks, ranking last among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan classification, indicating significant market concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][12]. - Precious metals experienced a notable decline, with COMEX gold prices falling by 13.30% and COMEX silver prices dropping by 19.94% in the same period, reflecting pressures from inflation concerns and a strong dollar [20]. - The tungsten market showed resilience, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 11.44% over the past two weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy constraints [36]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review (March 9 - March 20, 2026) - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 15.08%, with all sub-sectors, including small metals (-18.50%), precious metals (-12.52%), and industrial metals (-16.07%), showing declines [2][12]. 2. Precious Metals - As of March 20, COMEX gold closed at $4,492.00 per ounce, down 13.30% over two weeks, while COMEX silver closed at $67.81 per ounce, down 19.94% [20]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and regulatory tightening on market liquidity, which has pressured precious metal prices [20]. 3. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,021.50 per ton, down 6.14% over two weeks, while domestic copper prices averaged 95,470 yuan per ton, down 5.60% [30]. - The report anticipates a weak balance in copper prices due to low processing fees and potential production cuts [30]. 4. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to 1,023,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an 11.44% increase over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 123.85% [36]. - The report notes that the demand for high-end gallium products continues to rise, contributing to a 5.19% price increase for gallium [36]. 5. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index fell by 13.58% over two weeks, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices dropping by 17.35% [45]. - The report indicates that the rare earth sector is under pressure due to slowing demand growth in downstream applications [45]. 6. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices averaged 431,000 yuan per ton, down 0.12% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices fell by 4.03% to 149,000 yuan per ton [54]. - The report highlights the cautious market sentiment regarding the electric vehicle sector and its impact on energy metal prices [54]. 7. Major Events - The report discusses significant policy developments during the recent National People's Congress, emphasizing resource security and green transformation as key themes for the non-ferrous metals industry [70]. - It also notes that several banks have tightened gold trading operations in response to market volatility, impacting liquidity in the precious metals market [69].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are volatile, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to tightening supply and improving demand [1][4] - The report highlights a significant drop in the refined copper price differential, indicating a tightening supply of scrap copper [2][54] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in copper prices driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East may keep oil prices high, increasing market concerns about "stagflation" and potential interest rate hikes, which could suppress copper prices [1] - As of March 20, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 94,740 CNY/ton, down 5.55% from March 13, and the LME copper closing price was 11,835 USD/ton, down 7.07% [1][17] Supply and Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 8.9%, while LME copper inventory increased by 9.9% [2] - As of March 20, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 512,000 tons, down 1.3% from the previous week [2] - The refined copper price differential was reported at -417 CNY/ton, indicating a tightening supply of scrap copper [54] Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a week-on-week increase in operating rates by 3.9 percentage points, reaching 70.52% [3][71] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year by 6.1%, followed by increases of 2.9% and 4.9% in the subsequent months [3][89] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue to shine, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and a shift in global credit dynamics, with gold prices projected to rise significantly [4][13][36] - Central banks' gold purchases are anticipated to increase from 5% to 21% of global gold demand from 2020 to 2024, with a peak of 23% in 2022, indicating a strong demand for gold as a safe asset [13][19] - Gold prices are projected to exceed $6,000 per ounce by 2026, supported by central bank buying and a decline in real interest rates [33][36][46] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The demand for industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, is expected to remain robust, with aluminum nearing production capacity limits domestically and limited supply growth internationally [4][54] - The copper market is facing significant supply disruptions, with major mines experiencing production cuts due to various operational challenges, leading to a tight supply outlook [53][54] - The overall copper production is projected to grow modestly, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, but supply constraints may limit growth potential [54][72] Group 3: Minor Metals - Strategic minor metals such as lithium, cobalt, and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation due to increasing demand from energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [5][48] - The lithium industry is expected to see a reversal in its cycle earlier than anticipated, driven by high demand for energy storage solutions [5] - Cobalt supply is tightening significantly, leading to a notable price increase, while nickel prices are supported by clear cost structures and increasing supply disruptions [5][48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Invesco ETF (560290) in the non-ferrous metal sector, showing a slight increase of 0.82% at the opening [1] - Major holdings in the Invesco ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 1.59%, and Luoyang Molybdenum, which increased by 1.79%, while China Aluminum saw a decline of 3.21% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, with a return of -2.32% since its inception on January 26, 2026, and a return of 3.07% over the past month [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., with the fund manager being Gong Lili [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the performance of various stocks within the ETF, indicating a mixed performance among its holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco ETF for non-ferrous metals (560290) opened with a decline of 1.01%, priced at 0.978 yuan, indicating a negative market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Invesco non-ferrous metals ETF (560290) has a performance benchmark of the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index return [1] - Since its establishment on January 26, 2026, the fund has recorded a return of -1.40% [1] - Over the past month, the fund has achieved a return of 6.15% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the ETF include: - Zijin Mining: down 3.15% - Luoyang Molybdenum: down 4.18% - Northern Rare Earth: down 2.21% - China Aluminum: up 2.36% - Huayou Cobalt: down 3.33% - Zhongjin Gold: down 3.20% - Shandong Gold: down 2.22% - Xingye Silver Tin: down 4.15% - Ganfeng Lithium: down 2.87% - Tongling Nonferrous Metals: down 2.95% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, particularly in the metals and machinery sectors, reflecting investor sentiment and market dynamics as of March 2. Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Outflow - Zijin Mining experienced a capital outflow of 1.369 billion, with a decline of 0.58% in stock price [1][2] - Luoyang Molybdenum saw a capital outflow of 0.945 billion, with a stock price decrease of 1.67% [1][2] - LEO Group had a capital outflow of 0.927 billion, with a significant drop of 5.71% in stock price [1][2] - Hunan Gold reported a capital outflow of 0.907 billion, despite a stock price increase of 5.38% [1][2] - Northern Rare Earth faced a capital outflow of 0.728 billion, with a decline of 3.08% in stock price [1][2] - Luxshare Precision recorded a capital outflow of 0.721 billion, with a decrease of 3.31% in stock price [1][2] Group 2: Additional Notable Stocks - Huasheng Tiancheng had a capital outflow of 0.703 billion, with a stock price increase of 4.42% [1][2] - Dongfang Fortune experienced a capital outflow of 0.607 billion, with a decline of 2.35% in stock price [1][2] - Kunlun Wanwei saw a capital outflow of 0.594 billion, with a stock price drop of 5.61% [1][2] - China Merchants Energy reported a capital outflow of 0.583 billion, with a stock price increase of 1.85% [1][2] - Baosteel had a capital outflow of 0.552 billion, with a slight increase of 1.23% in stock price [1][2] Group 3: Further Capital Outflows - Century Huatong faced a capital outflow of 0.533 billion, with a stock price decrease of 7.12% [3] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reported a capital outflow of 0.514 billion, with a decline of 1.51% in stock price [3] - Sanhua Intelligent Control had a capital outflow of 0.501 billion, with a decrease of 3.34% in stock price [3] - Wangsu Science & Technology experienced a capital outflow of 0.500 billion, with a decline of 3.37% in stock price [3] - BlueFocus Communication Group saw a capital outflow of 0.494 billion, with a significant drop of 6.81% in stock price [3] - Runze Technology reported a capital outflow of 0.487 billion, with a decline of 2.74% in stock price [3] - Changyuan Tungsten had a capital outflow of 0.472 billion, with a notable increase of 7.39% in stock price [3] - Hunan Silver reported a capital outflow of 0.459 billion, with a stock price increase of 2.15% [3] - Shenghong Technology faced a capital outflow of 0.446 billion, with a decline of 1.65% in stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Anhui state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a slight increase of 0.34% on February 27, with Tongling Nonferrous Metals leading the gains [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4162.88, up by 0.39% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14495.09, down by 0.06% [1] Capital Flow - The Anhui state-owned enterprise reform sector saw a net outflow of 158 million yuan from main funds - Retail investors contributed a net inflow of 99.8 million yuan - Speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 5.8 million yuan [1]