信达证券：出口结构呈现动力煤与炼焦煤分化 澳洲煤炭行业成本呈持续上升趋势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the coal sector remains a high-performance, high-cash, and high-dividend asset class, supported by rising domestic development costs and international coal import costs, which are expected to keep coal prices at a high level [1] - The coal industry in Australia is experiencing limited new coal production capacity due to clean energy policies, despite being a major coal exporter with a significant share in the global market [1][2] - The restructuring of Australia's coal trade since 2021 has led to a recovery in coal exports to China, particularly for thermal coal, while coking coal exports remain low due to decreased demand from the Chinese real estate sector [2] Group 2 - The cost of coal production in Australia has been rising due to inflationary pressures, increased labor costs, and higher taxes and compliance costs imposed by the government [3] - Despite a projected decline in coal prices in 2024, major Australian coal companies are expected to maintain profitability, although profit margins have significantly decreased compared to previous years [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that while Australian high-calorific thermal coal remains the most profitable in the shipping market, profits are still below 2021 levels, and global coal producers face profitability pressures due to high costs and declining prices [5]