美国经济数据造假实锤？中国等这一刻太久了，降息窗口终于到来！

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the revelation of data manipulation in the U.S. employment report, undermining the myth of the "American exceptionalism" and signaling a potential strategic turning point for China as the interest rate cut window opens [1][3][11] - The July non-farm payroll data showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the market expectation of 180,000, marking the lowest figure in nine months. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a deteriorating job market [3][9] - Historical data revisions for May and June were drastic, with May's figures revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. economic data [3][9][11] Group 2 - The market reacted sharply, with major U.S. stock indices falling, the Nasdaq dropping over 2%, and the Euro Stoxx 600 index experiencing its largest single-day decline in four months at 1.9%. The U.S. dollar fell by 1.3%, and international oil prices dropped by 3% [6][11] - The trust in U.S. economic data has been severely shaken, leading to questions about the integrity of other economic indicators such as CPI, GDP, and corporate earnings, which could also be subject to manipulation [9][11][16] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to reconsider its high interest rate policy is now on the table, as the previous decisions were based on distorted data, which could lead to a shift in monetary policy and provide China with more room to maneuver [11][14][16] Group 3 - For China, this situation presents an opportunity to shift from a defensive to an offensive stance in economic policy, as the U.S. interest rate environment becomes more favorable for easing [11][14] - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts could allow for quicker adjustments in China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR), reduced corporate financing costs, and improved credit conditions in the real estate sector, ultimately boosting market sentiment [14][16] - The article suggests that the erosion of U.S. financial credibility could lead to a shift in global financial power dynamics, providing China with a strategic opportunity to enhance its monetary policy and promote the internationalization of the renminbi [16][18]