棉花2509合约：期价震荡收跌，新棉上市或压制棉价

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices are experiencing fluctuations, with mixed growth conditions for U.S. cotton, indicating potential supply and demand challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The closing price for cotton futures (contract 2509) was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or -0.15% from the previous day [1] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a national average price of 15,169 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: U.S. Cotton Growth Conditions - As of August 3, the blooming rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major planting states was 87%, which is 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The quality rate was 55%, which is 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five-year average [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Internationally, the supply side is minimally affected by weather this year, with a potential oversupply in the global cotton market for the 2025/26 season [1] - U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, and drought conditions have improved, but new export contracts are weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in international cotton prices [1] - Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, with low import volumes expected in the third quarter and tight inventory before the new cotton harvest [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The good growth conditions for new cotton and strong production expectations may pressure cotton prices in the fourth quarter, with uncertain demand prospects for the second half of the year [1] - The strategy suggests that due to ample global cotton supply in the new year and a lack of upward drivers in the industry, cotton prices may face short-term pressure and fluctuations [1]