SP2509合约：涨幅9.4%后跌6.1%，造纸业承压

Group 1 - The SP2509 contract experienced significant volatility in July, rising from 5080 points to a peak of 5560 points, an increase of 9.4%, followed by a decline of 6.1% in the last week [1] - The macroeconomic factors are driving the market more than the fundamentals, as indicated by the stable pulp spot market and weakening basis [1] - Global economic indicators, such as Citigroup's Global Surprise Index, have remained above zero this year, with most data exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth, supporting the logic of a strong macroeconomic environment [1] - The supply of hardwood pulp has decreased compared to softwood pulp, while downstream consumption continues to rise, indicating a better fundamental outlook for hardwood pulp [1] - The price spread between hardwood and softwood pulp is expected to narrow from -174 points to -1211 points by the second half of 2024, reflecting an improvement in hardwood pulp fundamentals [1] Group 3 - The softwood pulp supply side is underperforming, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 0.92 in Europe for June, leading to seven consecutive months of inventory accumulation [1] - Domestic imports of softwood wood chips and pulp reached 793,000 tons in June, marking a marginal increase for seven consecutive months, which negatively impacts SP valuations [1] - The domestic paper industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with total profits decreasing by 21.4% year-on-year in June and total losses increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - In May, electricity consumption in the paper industry was 846 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, falling below the average of 875 million kilowatt-hours for the previous year [1] - By the end of July, the paper industry issued an anti-involution initiative, aiming to reduce finished paper production, limit wood pulp capacity expansion, and improve the quality of finished paper [1] - Overall, the market fundamentals are considered average [1]