观点 | “有进有出”，提振消费

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as the top priority for the year, aiming to make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth and stability [1]. Policy Framework - A series of important documents have been issued at the national level to provide clear policy guidance for boosting consumption, with the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" being the most significant, outlining seven major actions [2]. - The financial policy aspect includes directives from the National Financial Supervision Administration to develop consumer finance, enhancing financial products and services to support consumption [2][3]. Systematic Layout - The current policy framework for boosting consumption is characterized by three core aspects: the linkage between income growth and consumption boost, the emphasis on coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides, and the critical role of financial support [3][4]. Economic Significance - From a macroeconomic perspective, consumption is increasingly recognized for its foundational role in economic growth, as highlighted in the 2025 government work report [5]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a significant slowdown compared to pre-pandemic levels [5]. - The transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven economic growth is essential, especially as traditional infrastructure investment peaks [5]. Consumer Demand and Supply - The demand for high-quality consumer products is directly linked to the improvement of living standards, with China being the second-largest consumer market globally [6]. - The diversification of consumer needs necessitates an optimized supply side to meet the evolving demands of consumers [7]. Long-term Strategy - The policies aimed at boosting consumption are primarily long-term in nature, focusing on sustainable development rather than short-term spikes in consumption [7]. - A favorable consumption environment is crucial, requiring a reliable consumer protection system, transparent financial support, and diverse supply chains [8][9][10]. Income Growth Mechanism - The "Have Incomes, Have Expenditures" concept emphasizes that consumption growth must be based on income increases, with specific measures to promote wage growth and diversify income sources [11][12]. - The plan includes initiatives to stabilize the stock and real estate markets to enhance household wealth and consumer confidence [12]. - Systematic improvements in rural income are also highlighted as essential for boosting overall consumption [13]. Employment and Social Security - Enhancing employment quality is fundamental to ensuring consumer spending capacity, with various measures proposed to stabilize and increase job opportunities [14]. - Social security improvements are also critical, aiming to reduce household burdens and increase disposable income, particularly for low-income groups [14].