北上广楼市成交量，集体下滑

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a collective decline in transaction volumes in July, with Shanghai seeing a drop exceeding 40% in new home sales [1][6][9] - Factors contributing to this downturn include extreme heat, typhoon impacts, the fading effects of previous policies, and a stalemate in price expectations between buyers and sellers [1][9] - Experts suggest that a recovery in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes may not occur until September [1][10] Second-hand Housing Market - In Beijing, second-hand home transactions fell to 12,784 units in July, a 15.6% decrease from June and 17.9% lower than the same month in 2024 [3] - Shanghai's second-hand home transactions dropped to 19,337 units, a 7% decrease from June and a 5% decline year-on-year [4] - Guangzhou reported 8,962 second-hand home transactions, down 9.39% from June and 10.68% year-on-year [4] - Shenzhen was an exception, with a 3.4% increase in second-hand home transactions, totaling 4,656 units [4] New Housing Market - The new housing market saw even more significant declines, with Shanghai's new home sales dropping by 40.6% in July, totaling 341,000 square meters [6] - Guangzhou's new home transactions fell by 25% to 4,874 units, with a 46.9% decrease in new supply [6] - Shenzhen's new home sales decreased by 24.1%, with a total of 1,441 units sold [7] Market Analysis - July is traditionally a slow month for real estate, compounded this year by extreme weather and a lack of strong policy support [9] - The market is currently characterized by a price standoff between buyers and sellers, leading to reduced transaction activity [3][9] - Despite the downturn, the overall transaction volumes remain above critical thresholds, indicating some resilience in the market [10] - Future market activity is expected to depend on the introduction of new policies and the resolution of current price expectations [12]