Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issued a warning regarding significant downward revisions to U.S. employment data, with a total adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June, marking the largest two-month revision since 1968 outside of recession periods [1] - The downward revisions were evenly distributed between the public and private sectors, indicating a broader impact on the labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates further downward adjustments, predicting a potential reduction of 550,000 to 950,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm employment benchmark revision, which could lower monthly job growth estimates for 2024-2025 from 145,000 to a range of 65,000-100,000 [1] Group 2 - Tom Lee from Fundstrat highlighted that the magnitude of the employment data revisions indicates a significant deviation from the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of employment and inflation, suggesting a more severe labor market issue than previously recognized [2] - Lee predicts an imminent shift in Federal Reserve policy, which could lead to higher price-to-earnings ratios as lower interest rates enhance investor interest in risk assets [2] - Following the release of disappointing July non-farm employment data, market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of December have intensified [2]
华尔街神算子：就业数据崩塌将迫使美联储政策转向 或支持更高股市估值
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-06 06:55