金荣中国：现货黄金守住隔夜反弹空间，震荡于两周高点徘徊

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,375, having reached a two-week high of $3,390.32 per ounce, marking four consecutive days of gains, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed weakness, falling to 98.76, which supported gold prices as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns over soft employment data and changes in the U.S. labor statistics leadership [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to personnel changes, which could further weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [1] Market Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has surged to 91%, with predictions of cumulative cuts of 130 basis points by October 2026, as economic data indicates a slowdown [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts the Federal Reserve may implement three consecutive rate cuts starting in September, each by 25 basis points, with a potential 50 basis point cut if employment data worsens [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed a productive call with U.S. President Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the need for sanctions against Russia and cooperation on drone agreements [3] - Zelensky expressed frustration over Russia's continued military aggression despite calls for a ceasefire, highlighting the dire situation for Ukrainian civilians [4] - Trump has threatened new sanctions against Russia if peace is not achieved by August 8, indicating a strong stance against Russia's actions in Ukraine [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed strong bullish momentum, with potential resistance levels at $3,390 and $3,400, while support is seen around $3,350 [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying near $3,355-$3,362 with a stop loss at $3,349, and considering short positions near $3,380-$3,385 with a stop loss at $3,391 [7]