国债等债券利息收入恢复征税，债券基金还有吸引力吗？

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy on bond interest income, reinstating a 3% value-added tax (VAT) on newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, while maintaining tax exemptions for bonds issued before this date until maturity [1][2][4]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy creates a "new and old distinction," allowing existing public funds that invest in government bonds to retain significant tax advantages, as they continue to enjoy exemptions on interest income and capital gains [4][5]. - The tax exemption for existing bonds may lead to a "bond grabbing" trend, pushing down the interest rate curve as investors seek to acquire older bonds before the new tax takes effect [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The anticipated tax changes are expected to create trading opportunities in the bond market, particularly for existing government bonds, as the current yield on 10-year government bonds is around 1.7%, making the 3% tax impact significant [4][9]. - The bond market is currently experiencing a recovery in bond fund sizes, with a notable increase in the proportion of bonds held in various fund categories, indicating a shift towards longer durations to capture higher capital gains amid declining interest rates [7]. Fund Performance and Rankings - As of the end of Q2, the total net asset value of fixed-income assets held by public and asset management companies reached 10.75 trillion yuan, with notable growth in several funds, including Bosera Fund and E Fund, which ranked first and second respectively [5][6]. - The rankings of fixed-income asset sizes show significant movements, with several funds advancing in their positions compared to previous quarters, reflecting the competitive landscape in the bond fund market [6]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face short-term pressure due to recent market fluctuations, but the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of a downward trend in yields as the market stabilizes [8][9]. - The impact of the new tax policy on the bond market is viewed as a one-time adjustment, with future market movements likely influenced by fundamental economic conditions and monetary policy [9].