Tesla(US:TSLA) 智通财经网·2025-08-06 07:38Core Viewpoint - Despite Elon Musk's ambitious claims regarding Tesla's AI supercomputing system, fully autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robot applications, the company fundamentally remains an electric vehicle manufacturer, with automotive sales contributing 75% of its revenue, while the contributions from AI-driven initiatives are minimal and uncertain [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tesla's automotive business generated $167 billion in revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, down from $199 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a 12% year-over-year decline [3][6] - The company's gross margin fell to 17.2%, a decrease of 71 basis points year-over-year, attributed to declining sales and increased discounts [6] - The second quarter vehicle deliveries unexpectedly dropped by 13% year-over-year, with Model 3/Y deliveries down 12% and luxury models down 52% [6] Group 2: Market Challenges - Tesla's market share in Europe has been significantly eroded, with sales continuously declining due to increased competition from established automakers like Volkswagen and Renault [3][7] - The company's market share in the UK has plummeted to below 1% this year, indicating a substantial loss of presence in a key market [3][7] - The political backlash against Musk has negatively impacted Tesla's sales in Europe, as many customers are reluctant to associate with his values [8] Group 3: Valuation Insights - Analyst Gytis Zizys estimates that even under the most optimistic discounted cash flow (DCF) assumptions, Tesla's intrinsic value is only $233 per share, suggesting that the current trading price of approximately $310 is overvalued [3][10] - The DCF model used by Zizys incorporates a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, leading to a significant downside potential of 24.3% from the current share price [10] Group 4: Future Business Prospects - The revenue contribution from AI-driven initiatives like Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi remains below 10% of Tesla's total revenue, indicating limited current financial impact [2][3] - The anticipated growth in Tesla's energy storage systems is projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, but current deployment rates suggest that the long-term goals set by Musk may not be achievable [9]