富格林：冻结戒备出金欺诈 降息预期利多金市

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly declined to 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating a slowdown in the service sector [3] - The market anticipates a 91% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September due to weak employment data [3][7] Group 2 - Trump's recent announcement of new tariffs on several countries, particularly a 25% tariff on Indian goods, has heightened trade tensions [4] - The breakdown of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas could escalate geopolitical risks, potentially impacting gold prices due to increased risk premiums [6] - The unexpected resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler raises concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data and policy independence [7] Group 3 - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, raising concerns about oversupply amid uncertain demand recovery [9] - The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, which may provide short-term support for oil prices [10] - The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments and U.S. trade policies, which could further influence oil price dynamics [10]