需求维持弱势 沪锡波动收窄【8月6日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with the main contract rising by 0.3% to 266,940 yuan/ton, influenced by macroeconomic concerns regarding the U.S. economy and weak downstream demand [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tin from Myanmar has not yet recovered, with mining approvals in the Wa region affected by the rainy season and preparatory work, leading to a prolonged recovery period for imports [1] - In Yunnan, raw material shortages remain severe, with smelters' inventories generally below 30 days, resulting in intense competition for tin ore procurement and high processing costs for low-grade ores [1] - Some companies are preparing for production halts to clear intermediate products, while production has slightly increased due to the completion of maintenance [1] - Downstream orders continue to decline, with the third quarter being a traditional low season for consumption, leading to reduced orders in home appliances and significant drops in photovoltaic orders [1] Market Sentiment and Inventory Levels - Social inventory has been rising, and after price increases, downstream purchasing has become cautious, with many buyers placing low orders and adopting a wait-and-see approach [1] - Recent commentary from New Lake Futures indicates that the current weak consumption trend is expected to continue, with no significant changes in supply, and domestic inventories are on the rise while LME inventories remain low [2] - The short-term outlook suggests a dual weakness in supply and demand, with tin prices likely to experience repeated fluctuations [2]