黄金还要涨？多家机构上调金价预期

Core Viewpoint - The recent weak U.S. non-farm employment data has led to a rebound in gold prices, with market expectations for gold rising significantly due to deteriorating economic growth and inflation outlooks in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On August 6, COMEX gold futures opened at $3434.9 per ounce, reflecting a market shift towards bullish sentiment for gold [1] - Citibank raised its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, adjusting the trading range from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 [1] - The chief commodity analyst at Industrial Bank Research noted that the probability of gold price increases is rising as previous high valuations are being digested and seasonal volatility in U.S. stocks may intensify [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July added only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 110,000, while June's figures were revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, a downward adjustment of 90% [2] - Concerns over a slowing U.S. labor market have spurred gold price increases following the data release [2] - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund highlighted that the recent rise in gold prices is partly due to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, as U.S. stock indices typically perform poorly before such cuts, supporting gold prices [2] Group 3: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Following Citibank's upward revision, several institutions expressed optimism about gold prices, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a target price of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, citing global central bank gold purchases, recession risks, and weakening dollar credibility as key drivers [3] - DBS Bank's Chief Investment Officer stated a positive outlook for alternative asset investments, particularly in gold, setting a target price of $3765 per ounce for Q4 2025 [3] - The increasing risks and uncertainties, along with ongoing central bank reserve diversification and strong investor demand, are expected to support the gold market [3]