年内暴涨45%，铂金供应危机一触即发？

Core Insights - A global platinum supply crunch is pushing the market to a critical point, with significant inventory depletion in key trading centers like London and Zurich, leading to a 45% price increase this year, currently trading around $1,320 per ounce [1][3] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rapid depletion of platinum inventory is driven by two main demand engines: significant accumulation in the U.S. market due to tariff concerns, and record imports by major Asian consumers, which have exceeded domestic consumption estimates [3][4] - In the past three weeks, platinum inventory at NYMEX-certified warehouses increased by nearly 290,000 ounces, indicating strong demand [3] - The lack of reliable official inventory data from London adds uncertainty to the already tight market conditions [3] Group 2: Market Liquidity and Borrowing Costs - The soaring leasing rates for platinum, which have remained above 10%, reflect severe market liquidity issues, making it challenging for industries reliant on platinum to manage costs [4][5] - High leasing rates, which peaked at nearly 40%, have effectively barred most borrowers from accessing platinum, indicating extreme market tightness [5] Group 3: Supply Shortages and Production Challenges - The platinum market is heading towards its third consecutive year of supply shortages, exacerbated by ongoing power shortages and rising costs in South Africa, which produces 70% of the world's platinum [5] - Despite rising prices allowing about 90% of platinum mining companies to become profitable, new production investments remain stagnant, with a need for prices to rise by approximately 50% to stimulate new capacity [5] Group 4: Divergent Market Outlooks - Analysts from Deutsche Bank predict strong fundamentals for platinum will persist until 2026, driven by industrial restocking and jewelry sector demand, with prices potentially reaching $1,550 per ounce [7] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs expresses caution, attributing recent price surges to speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements, warning of potential price corrections as the automotive industry shifts towards electrification [7]