Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-06 09:39Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for AIA Group (01299) to HKD 105, maintaining an "Overweight" rating, as the stock has outperformed the market with a 27% increase since April 2024, compared to the Hang Seng Index's 23% rise [1] - The new target price extends the timeframe from December 2025 to June 2026, reflecting expectations of upward revisions in 2026 earnings guidance and further potential for total shareholder return [1] - Recent regulatory changes in Hong Kong are seen as beneficial for AIA, with the new business value (NBV) contribution from Hong Kong estimated at approximately 30% [1] Group 2 - As of December 2024, AIA's existing life insurance policies are projected to generate an undiscounted distributable income of USD 46.6 billion over the next decade, representing an annual growth of 8.6% [2] - The balance is expected to increase to USD 48.7 billion, with a semi-annual growth rate of 4.5%, providing confidence in higher profit growth prospects [2] - Net free surplus generation is anticipated to reach USD 2.4 billion, with an annual growth of 9%, and the estimated free surplus balance by June 2025 is projected to be USD 10.8 billion [2] - AIA's new business value growth rates for the fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted at 15%, 22%, and 24%, respectively [2]