这次，鲍威尔真坐不住了

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a potential interest rate cut due to a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures, leading to a consensus in the market for a rate reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core PCE inflation rate in June was 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation challenges [1]. - The July non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4]. - Revisions to previous months' job data revealed a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about the labor market's health [4][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Waller, have publicly supported a more proactive approach to rate cuts, citing the need to address a weakening job market [2][6]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from 37% to over 75%, with some institutions predicting a cut of up to 50 basis points if unemployment rises [2][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market has shifted from a wait-and-see approach to betting on rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of a reduction [3][6]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate multiple rate cuts, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6]. Group 4: Implications for Domestic Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could provide some monetary policy flexibility for domestic markets, particularly in China, where the current interest rate differential with the U.S. is significant [8][10]. - The anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy may enhance liquidity in global markets, potentially benefiting domestic capital markets [8][10].