2025全球跨境电商供应链发展趋势报告

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of cross-border e-commerce despite global trade fluctuations, predicting that global e-commerce sales will rise from $6.8 trillion in 2025 to $8 trillion by 2027, with a penetration rate increasing from 20.1% to 22.6% [1][17][20] - The cross-border e-commerce supply chain has evolved through stages of "transport," "warehousing," and "distribution," and is now entering a phase dominated by "network chains," focusing on global network layout, regional grid services, end-to-end digitalization, and value-added benefits [1][12][24] - Consumer demand is driving fulfillment upgrades, with key decision factors including free shipping, return policies, and next-day delivery [1][30] Group 1: Global Trade and E-commerce Trends - Global trade is experiencing mild recovery despite pressures, with the WTO predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume in 2025, followed by a recovery to 2.5% growth in 2026 [15][16] - The global retail e-commerce market is expected to grow at double the rate of overall retail, with sales projected to increase significantly, indicating strong growth potential for e-commerce [17][20] - Mature markets continue to dominate global e-commerce, while emerging markets are entering a rapid growth phase driven by factors such as internet penetration and urbanization [21][22] Group 2: Supply Chain Evolution and Challenges - The cross-border e-commerce supply chain has undergone four stages, culminating in a "network chain" model that emphasizes global coverage and efficient collaboration [24][29] - Key challenges for merchants include complex customs policies, unstable transport times, inventory backlog, and high costs of interfacing with multiple service providers [1][23] - The logistics market is projected to grow from $1.08 trillion in 2024 to $1.73 trillion by 2030, highlighting the need for efficient warehousing and fulfillment strategies [33] Group 3: Consumer Expectations and Fulfillment - Consumer fulfillment experience significantly influences online purchasing decisions, with a majority prioritizing free shipping and return policies [30][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of building a global fulfillment network to meet rising consumer expectations for delivery speed and reliability [32] - Efficient fulfillment processes are critical for product innovation, with a significant percentage of merchants indicating a need to enhance their product design and inventory management capabilities [42][44]