多晶硅：供需失衡矛盾扩大，PS2511区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The monthly supply-demand imbalance in the polysilicon market is widening, with potential changes in market dynamics depending on policy adjustments regarding export tax rebates [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance in the polysilicon market is becoming more pronounced, although the fundamental feedback remains limited [1] - If policy measures effectively promote capacity clearance, it could reverse the current fundamental market conditions [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading - The increase in warehouse receipts and sufficient factory inventory enhances the attractiveness of hedging, leading to a gradual increase in warehouse receipt volume, although it remains limited [1] - The market sentiment is reflected in high positions and low warehouse receipts, indicating a potential struggle between these factors [1] Group 3: Price Levels and Market Trends - The "anti-involution" theme shows no actual progress in capacity storage details, compounded by policy adjustments at the trading level [1] - The price of PS2511 faces significant pressure around 54,000 yuan/ton, with clear support near 48,000 yuan/ton, suggesting a potential range-bound trading pattern [1] - Attention is drawn to the sentiment transmission of the main "anti-involution" variety, coking coal, emphasizing the need for position risk control [1]