棕榈油：排灯节前强势，9月后或迎拐点

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market in Indonesia is currently strong ahead of the Diwali festival, driven by increased import demand from India and support from biodiesel demand in Indonesia [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased oilseed consumption in India is expected as the Diwali festival approaches, leading to higher palm oil imports [1] - South American soybean oil exports are anticipated to slow down, increasing reliance on palm oil [1] - The biodiesel demand in Indonesia is providing additional support to the palm oil market [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The U.S. biodiesel compliance obligations for 2026 and 2027 are expected to be finalized by November, with current market expectations of a decrease in import raw material subsidies [1] - Palm oil prices are not likely to drop significantly before the establishment of Indonesian inventories, with a gradual upward movement in price bottoms [1] - However, sustained price increases will depend on continued purchases from demand countries like India [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The 2025/26 sunflower seed production is expected to increase, leading to higher sunflower oil exports [1] - Sunflower oil from the Black Sea region is set to enter the market in September, creating competition for palm oil [1] - After the Diwali festival in September and October, palm oil import demand from India is expected to decline, potentially leading to weaker demand and a market turning point due to high inventories in Malaysia and Indonesia [1]