美股为何不跌？高盛交易员一语道破天机：谁敢在疯涨趋势做空？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a 30% probability of a U.S. recession, global stock markets remain active, indicating a potential irrationality in market momentum [1] - Investors are focusing on strong liquidity and structural growth themes like artificial intelligence and fiscal credit expansion, while potentially overlooking labor market slowdowns [1] - In the U.S. stock market, strong corporate earnings and bets on lower interest rates have driven stock prices close to historical highs, even amid concerns about comprehensive tariffs [1] Group 2 - A Goldman Sachs trader noted that due to the prevalence of short-term strategies and suppressed volatility, few are willing to short a still intact upward trend, suggesting the path of least resistance remains upward [2] - HSBC raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index by over 800 points to 6400, citing enthusiasm from artificial intelligence and a reduction in U.S. policy uncertainty [2] - The report indicates that AI trading is driving technology/AI stocks higher, which constitute about half of the S&P 500 index, while reduced policy uncertainty is benefiting other market sectors [2]