谁在主导周期？

Economic Outlook - The industrial growth rate is projected to be 6.5% in August, slightly down from 6.7% in July, while investment is expected to decrease to 2.5% from 2.6% [1] - Consumer spending is forecasted to remain stable at 4.4%, unchanged from July, indicating a slowdown in consumption growth [1] - External demand is anticipated to decline to 5.5% from 5.8%, reflecting pressures on exports [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decrease by 0.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% in July, indicating deflationary pressures [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to drop by 2.6%, an improvement from a 3.3% decline in July, suggesting a potential stabilization in producer prices [1] Monetary Policy - M2 money supply growth is forecasted to remain at 8.2%, consistent with July's figures, indicating stable liquidity in the economy [1] - Social financing is expected to grow by 9.0%, slightly down from 9.1% in July, reflecting ongoing support for infrastructure investment [1] External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has decreased, but its impact on the global economy will manifest gradually [2] - The adjustment of the Chinese yuan's effective exchange rate may help mitigate the effects of tariff pressures and declining external demand [2] Domestic Demand - The real estate market is experiencing a slowdown, with prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou returning to levels seen before September of the previous year [2] - Consumer subsidies are being distributed more evenly, although the amounts are lower than in the first half of the year [2] - Hotel occupancy rates during the summer have shown a year-on-year decline, and airfares have reached historical lows for the same period [2] Policy Insights - The third quarter has historically been characterized as an "economic observation period," with fiscal spending front-loaded this year, but expected to weaken marginally in the future [3] - The decline in bill rates indicates a persistent lack of internal credit demand [3]