MO Expands Smoke-Free Portfolio: Can It Offset Combustible Declines?

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is experiencing significant growth in its smoke-free product segment, particularly with its oral nicotine pouch brand, on!, which saw a 26.5% increase in shipments year over year, reaching 52.1 million cans, and capturing an 8.7% share of the total oral tobacco category [1][7] - The nicotine pouch segment now constitutes over half of the oral tobacco category, indicating a shift in consumer preferences away from traditional moist smokeless tobacco [1] - Altria's oral tobacco segment reported a 10.9% increase in adjusted operating income, with margins expanding to 68.7%, despite a 10.2% decline in domestic cigarette shipments [2][3][7] Market Competition - Philip Morris International is aggressively expanding its smoke-free portfolio, with a 17.3% organic growth in smoke-free net revenues, driven by a 26% increase in ZYN U.S. offtake and a 65% rise in international pouch volumes [4] - Turning Point Brands is also making strides in the modern oral nicotine market, with white pouch sales growing nearly 10 times year over year, prompting an increase in full-year guidance to $80-$95 million [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Altria's shares have increased by 3.8% over the past month, contrasting with a 1.6% decline in the industry [6] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4X, which is lower than the industry's average of 14.9X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has risen by 2 cents each, now projected at $5.39 and $5.55 respectively [10]