Shares of the Marlboro maker may have more room to fall before they hit deep-value territory.Take one quick look at the stock on a screener, and you may think "undervalued" is an apt description for Altria Group (MO +0.60%).The company, which sells Marlboro cigarettes in the United States, has a low forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) and a high forward dividend yield and looks very cheap today. But don't underestimate how much "cheaper" shares could get in the months ahead.NYSE : MOAltria GroupToday's Ch ...

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are key players in the global tobacco industry, each with distinct strategies and strong brand portfolios [1][2] - The tobacco industry is transforming due to declining cigarette use, regulatory pressures, and consumer interest in smoke-free technologies, prompting both companies to innovate and restructure [2] Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - Altria holds a dominant position in the U.S. tobacco market with a 45.4% cigarette retail share and Marlboro's 59.6% share in the premium segment as of Q3 2025 [3] - The smokeable segment achieved a 64.4% adjusted operating companies income margin, indicating strong pricing power despite volume pressures [3] - Altria's strategy includes enhancing profitability while expanding into oral nicotine, heated tobacco, and e-vapor platforms, with on! shipments reaching 133.6 million cans year-to-date [4] - The company raised its quarterly dividend by 3.9% to $1.06 per share, marking its 60th increase in 56 years, and expanded its share repurchase program to $2 billion through 2026 [5] - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes fell 8.2% in the quarter, and Marlboro's total-category share declined to 40.4%, highlighting ongoing challenges [6] Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) - Philip Morris is focused on smoke-free products, which accounted for 41% of total net revenues and 42% of gross profit in Q3 2025, with smoke-free gross profit reaching a record $3.1 billion [7][8] - Shipments of IQOS increased by 15.5% to 40.8 billion units, maintaining a 76% global share of heated tobacco units [8] - Adjusted operating income rose 12.4% to $4.7 billion, with margins expanding to 43.1%, and adjusted EPS increased 17.3% to $2.24 [10] - Despite a 3.2% decline in cigarette shipment volumes, pricing strength lifted net revenues by 4.3% [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 EPS indicates a year-over-year increase of around 6.3%, with the 2025 EPS estimate at $5.44 [12] - For Philip Morris, the 2025 EPS estimate implies a year-over-year growth of 14.3%, with the estimate at $7.51 [14] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Altria's shares gained 9.3%, while Philip Morris's shares advanced by 22.7% [16] - Altria trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.57, while Philip Morris's forward P/E ratio stands at 18.9 [18] Investment Outlook - Philip Morris is viewed as the stronger growth story due to its shift towards smoke-free products and disciplined cost strategy, while Altria offers stability and consistent cash flows [20]

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Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is a major consumer goods company focused on tobacco products, with a portfolio that includes the well-known Marlboro brand and extends to smokeless tobacco, wines, and alternative nicotine ventures [1] Company Overview - Altria's market capitalization is approximately $97.7 billion, categorizing it as a large-cap company, which allows for extensive distribution through wholesalers and major retail organizations [2] Stock Performance - Altria's stock has experienced significant volatility, falling over 16.4% from its 52-week high of $68.80 on August 22, and declining 15.3% in the past three months, contrasting with a 3.7% gain in the S&P 500 Index during the same period [3] - Over the past 52 weeks, Altria's stock gained only 1.1%, while year-to-date (YTD) it rose 9.6%, compared to the broader index's 11% increase over the past year and 14% YTD, indicating a notable performance gap [4] Technical Analysis - The momentum for Altria's stock has turned bearish, as it fell below its 200-day moving average in late October and has remained under the 50-day moving average since mid-October [5] Earnings Report - In the fiscal 2025 Q3 earnings report released on October 30, Altria's adjusted EPS increased by 3.6% year-over-year to $1.45, slightly exceeding analysts' expectations of $1.44. However, revenue for the quarter was $6.07 billion, which, despite surpassing forecasts, represented a 3% year-over-year decline due to lower net revenues in smokeable products, contributing to a 7.8% drop in share price on the announcement day [6]

Core Insights - Corporate spin-offs have consistently outperformed the market for 30 years, creating significant investment opportunities [1][32][35] Historical Performance - Research from 1964 to 1990 indicated that spin-offs delivered average excess returns of 3.0% on ex-dates and outperformed the overall market by 10% in their first three years [2][3] - An updated study covering 2007 to 2017 confirmed that spin-offs maintained similar abnormal returns, indicating a persistent market inefficiency [3] Mechanisms of Outperformance - Indiscriminate selling by shareholders who receive spin-off shares often depresses prices below intrinsic value, creating opportunities for investors [29] - Spin-off management teams can make operational improvements without corporate bureaucracy, leading to better capital allocation and focused strategies [30] - The separation of complex conglomerates reveals hidden value, allowing for clearer valuation of individual businesses [31] Notable Spin-off Examples - Yum Brands, spun off from PepsiCo, achieved a total shareholder return of over 1,600% since its spin-off in 1997, compared to the S&P 500's 280% return [9][10] - Chipotle, spun off from McDonald's, saw its stock rise from $22 to $1,592.25, a gain of over 7,100% since its IPO [12] - Abbott Laboratories and AbbVie both performed well post-separation, with AbbVie returning about 20.1% per year since its debut [14][15] - Ferrari's stock rose tenfold after its spin-off from Fiat Chrysler, highlighting the value unlocked through separation [18] - Phillips 66 doubled in size within two years of its spin-off from ConocoPhillips, demonstrating the benefits of operational focus [19][20] Current Market Trends - The average market value of spin-offs has increased from around $1 billion before 2008 to $2.5 billion today, indicating a trend towards larger and more impactful separations [24][25] - Activist investors are increasingly advocating for spin-offs, as seen in campaigns targeting companies like Honeywell and General Electric [26][27] Future Opportunities - Spin-offs remain a fertile ground for outsized returns, but require thorough analysis and patience from investors [34][35] - Recent spin-offs like Solstice Advanced Materials and Qnity Electronics are positioned to benefit from strong market trends, including demand for cooling systems and semiconductor materials [37][42]

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. has narrowed its 2025 adjusted earnings per share outlook to $5.37-$5.45, reflecting operational discipline and clearer margin performance expectations [1][4][8] Financial Performance - The smokeable segment achieved adjusted operating income margins of 64.4%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points, driven by pricing and lower per-unit settlement charges [2][8] - Domestic cigarette volumes declined approximately 9% in Q3 2025, compared to an estimated 8% decrease at the industry level [2] - Oral tobacco margins rose to 69.2%, up 2.4 percentage points, influenced by mix shifts and promotional activities [3][8] Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International Inc. reported an adjusted operating income margin of 43.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year over year, with smoke-free gross profit increasing by 19.5% [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. saw gross margins in the Stoker's segment rise to 60.2%, an expansion of 440 basis points year over year, driven by strong Modern Oral momentum [6] Valuation Metrics - Altria's shares have decreased by 10% over the past month, while the industry has declined by 1.7% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Altria is 10.48X, compared to the industry average of 14.17X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's 2025 earnings per share has increased by 1 cent to $5.44, while the estimate for 2026 has decreased by 1 cent to $5.56 [10]

Core Insights - Companies with a strong history of dividend payments and increases are attractive to income-focused investors, with Merck, Altria, and Genuine Parts recently announcing dividend hikes and offering yields up to 7% [1] Merck - Merck & Co. has raised its dividends for 14 consecutive years, with the latest increase on Nov. 19 raising the quarterly payout from $0.77 to $0.81 per share, resulting in an annual figure of $3.24 per share [3] - The current dividend yield for Merck is 3.49% [3] - As of Sept. 30, Merck's annual revenue was $64.23 billion, and Q3 2025 revenues were reported at $17.28 billion with an EPS of $2.58, both exceeding consensus estimates [4] Altria - Altria Group has a remarkable track record of increasing dividends for 56 years, with the most recent hike on Aug. 21 raising the quarterly payout from $1.02 to $1.06 per share, equating to an annual figure of $4.24 per share [5] - The current dividend yield for Altria is 7.29% [5] - Altria's annual revenue as of Sept. 30 was $20.17 billion, with Q3 2025 revenues of $6.07 billion and an EPS of $1.45, both surpassing consensus estimates [6] Genuine Parts - Genuine Parts Co. has consistently raised its dividends for 69 years, with the latest increase on Feb. 18 raising the quarterly payout by 3% to $1.03 per share, resulting in an annual figure of $4.12 per share [8] - The current dividend yield for Genuine Parts is 3.24% [8]

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Core Viewpoint - Altria's stock appears inexpensive with a high dividend yield, but further analysis is necessary to determine if it is a genuine investment opportunity or a potential value trap [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Altria has experienced a 15% drop in share price recently, yet it still outperforms major exchange-traded funds in the consumer-packaged goods sector [4]. - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 and is recognized as a Dividend King, having increased its dividend payout 60 times over 56 years, currently yielding 7.29% [6]. - Altria's debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 2x, indicating manageable leverage, which supports its ability to maintain dividend payouts [7]. Group 2: Revenue Trends - In the third quarter, Altria's net revenue fell by 3%, with Marlboro shipments down 11.7% and overall U.S. cigarette volume decreasing by 8.2% [9]. - Cigarettes are projected to account for over $8 of every $10 in Altria's sales in the coming years, highlighting the importance of this segment [9]. Group 3: Diversification Efforts - Although Altria is not solely reliant on cigarettes for revenue, its attempts to diversify, such as investments in Cronos and Juul Labs, have not been successful [10]. - Past missteps in management's strategy to enter higher-growth categories raise concerns about the company's future growth potential, especially given the limited growth opportunities in the U.S. cigarette market [11].

Core Insights - The article contrasts the investment appeal of Altria Group Inc. with Nvidia Corp., suggesting that Nvidia offers more attractive growth potential and returns for investors [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nvidia has shown significant growth, with its revenue increasing by 101% year-over-year to $13.51 billion in the last quarter [1] - Altria, on the other hand, has faced declining sales, with a reported 5.5% drop in revenue to $5.1 billion [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The semiconductor industry, represented by Nvidia, is experiencing a boom driven by demand for AI and data center technologies [1] - In contrast, the tobacco industry, represented by Altria, is facing challenges due to regulatory pressures and changing consumer preferences [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts are more optimistic about Nvidia's future, projecting continued growth and innovation in AI, which is expected to drive further revenue increases [1] - Altria's outlook remains uncertain, with potential risks related to market share loss and regulatory challenges impacting its profitability [1]