Core Viewpoint - Altria (NYSE: MO) is one of the few stocks showing positive performance amidst a market downturn [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Altria is currently posting green candles while most other stocks are declining [1] Group 2: Market Context - The article discusses the broader market conditions, indicating a general market tumble with only a handful of stocks performing well [1]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group is positioned as a stable investment option during market uncertainty, offering consistent dividend income and potential growth in its smoke-free product segment [2][10]. Financial Performance - Altria's net revenue after excise taxes increased by 1.6% year-over-year to $5.1 billion, despite an 8% decline in cigarette sales volume [3]. - The smokeables division generated an operating income of $10.8 billion in 2024, with a 60% operating margin, highlighting its profitability [3]. Product Strategy - Altria aims to double its smoke-free product sales to $5 billion by 2028, although it currently lags behind competitors like Philip Morris International [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its smoke-free product offerings, including nicotine pouches and electronic vaping [4]. Capital Returns and Dividends - Altria has reduced its shares outstanding by 14% over the last 10 years, with accelerated buybacks in 2024 [6]. - The dividend per share has increased by approximately 100% over the past decade, with a current quarterly payout of $1.02 [6]. - Management plans to grow the dividend per share at a mid-single-digit percentage rate annually, around 5% through 2028 [7]. Investment Rationale - Investing $1,000 in Altria Group stock is projected to yield around $70 in annual dividend income based on the current yield [9]. - The company has demonstrated a 103% growth in free cash flow per share over the last 10 years, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [9][10].

Group 1: Tobacco Industry Overview - British American Tobacco (BTI) has a dividend yield of 7.2%, while Altria (MO) has a yield of 6.9% [1] - Both companies have been raising their dividends, primarily due to their ability to increase cigarette prices [3] - However, cigarette volumes have been declining for years, with British American Tobacco's volume falling by 5% and Altria's by 10.2% in 2024 [4] Group 2: Risks in Tobacco Sector - Price hikes have been used to offset declining volumes, but this strategy may not be sustainable long-term [5] - Both companies are attempting to diversify away from cigarettes but have not yet found a viable solution [5] - The long-term decline in cigarette volumes poses a risk to the sustainability of their dividends [15] Group 3: Alternative Investment Opportunities - Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Enbridge (ENB), and Realty Income (O) are presented as less risky alternatives with yields of 6.2%, 5.8%, and 5.6% respectively [2] - Midstream companies like Enterprise and Enbridge generate stable cash flows from energy infrastructure, which is less affected by volatile oil and gas prices [7] - Realty Income operates in the real estate investment trust sector, owning over 15,600 properties, which mitigates tenant risk through diversification [11][12] Group 4: Financial Stability of Alternatives - Enterprise has increased its distribution annually for 26 consecutive years, while Enbridge has a 30-year dividend streak [10] - Realty Income's size and financial strength provide it with advantageous access to capital markets, allowing for larger deals and steady growth [13] - Realty Income has a history of three decades of annual dividend increases, making it a reliable choice for income investors [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent overhaul of U.S. trade policies, including updated tariffs on over 180 countries, is expected to impact various American companies, but Altria Group is positioned to weather these changes due to its domestic sourcing of tobacco products [1][3]. Company Overview - Altria Group is the largest tobacco company in the U.S., owning well-known brands such as Marlboro, Copenhagen, and Skoal [3]. - The company generates nearly all of its revenue from tobacco, with $24 billion in revenue for 2024, of which $21.2 billion comes from smokable products and $2.78 billion from oral tobacco products [4]. Industry Context - The tobacco industry has faced challenges due to declining smoking rates, which have dropped around 20% in the past decade [5]. - Despite these challenges, Altria's revenue structure may benefit from the current economic climate, as tobacco products tend to remain in demand even during economic downturns [6][7]. Economic Resilience - Altria is considered one of the more recession-resistant businesses, as consumers are likely to prioritize spending on tobacco over other non-essential items during tough economic times [7]. - The addictive nature of tobacco provides Altria with significant pricing power, allowing the company to maintain steady finances despite declining smoking rates [8]. Dividend Performance - Altria has been recognized for its attractive dividend yield, which is around 7%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average [9]. - The company has a strong track record of increasing its dividend for 55 consecutive years, placing it among elite Dividend Kings [10]. - Altria prioritizes maintaining its dividend, recognizing its importance to shareholders [11].

Group 1: Company Performance - Altria's stock closed at $57.89, reflecting a +1.35% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 4.84% [1] - Over the past month, Altria's shares gained 2.09%, underperforming the Consumer Staples sector's gain of 5.4% but outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 4.7% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Financial Results - Altria is set to announce its earnings on April 29, 2025, with an anticipated EPS of $1.19, representing a 3.48% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to be $4.66 billion, indicating a 1.11% decline compared to the year-ago quarter [2] Group 3: Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $5.32 per share and revenue at $20.44 billion, reflecting changes of +3.91% and -0.03% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Altria are important as they indicate changing business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analyst optimism [3] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - Altria has a Forward P/E ratio of 10.74, which aligns with the industry average [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 3.04, compared to the Tobacco industry's average PEG ratio of 2.85 [6] Group 5: Industry Context - The Tobacco industry is part of the Consumer Staples sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 52, placing it in the top 21% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank measures the strength of industry groups, with the top 50% rated industries outperforming the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group's stock price declined nearly 3% following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that negatively impacts the company's interests in flavored vapes, contrasting with the S&P 500's increase of 0.7% on the same day [1]. Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling - The Supreme Court ruled against an appeals court decision that claimed the FDA acted unlawfully in rejecting applications from Triton Distribution and Vapetasia for flavored vape products [2]. - The appeals court had previously asserted that the FDA violated the law by changing rules during the approval process for flavored vapes [3]. - The Supreme Court's decision sends the case back to the appeals court for further review, which may affect the regulatory landscape for flavored vapes [3]. Group 2: Impact on Altria - Although Altria is not directly involved in the case, the company has a vested interest in the outcome due to its reliance on next-generation products like vapes amid declining traditional cigarette consumption [4]. - A favorable ruling for the FDA in this regulatory process diminishes Altria's prospects in the flavored vape market [4]. - Despite the challenges, Altria's management has experience navigating regulatory issues and will adapt to the new developments, although current trends are not favorable for the company [5].

Core Viewpoint - Altria offers a high dividend yield of 7%, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 1.3%, but faces growth challenges and modest dividend increases, while Eli Lilly provides a lower yield of less than 1% but has shown impressive dividend growth [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Performance - Altria has raised its dividend for 55 consecutive years, while Eli Lilly's streak began in 2015, indicating a longer history for Altria but not necessarily better growth potential [2]. - In the past five years, Altria's dividend has increased by just over 21%, whereas Eli Lilly's dividends have doubled, showcasing a stark difference in growth rates [4]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Valuation - Eli Lilly's stock has surged by 476% over the past five years, compared to Altria's 52% increase, which lags behind the S&P 500's more than 116% return [5]. - The high performance of Eli Lilly's stock has led to a lower yield, as the stock becomes more expensive relative to its dividend payouts [5]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - Eli Lilly is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the GLP-1 weight loss market, while Altria faces uncertainty due to declining tobacco use [6]. - Long-term investors may find Eli Lilly to be a better dividend stock despite its current lower yield, as Altria risks potential dividend cuts if profits decline [7][9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Eli Lilly's elevated valuation may limit future returns, but if returns moderate and the company continues to increase dividends, its yield could rise, making it an attractive long-term investment [8].

Core Viewpoint - Altria's stock price has appreciated by 43.48% since early 2024, driven by a bullish thesis based on two core arguments [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock price increase of 43.48% occurred before any dividends were accounted for [1]. Group 2: Investment Thesis - The bullish thesis on Altria is based on two main arguments, although the specific arguments are not detailed in the provided text [1].

Core Insights - Altria is facing significant challenges as cigarette demand declines, which is its primary revenue source, while management emphasizes potential opportunities that may indicate the company is lagging behind [1][10] Business Overview - Altria's main business revolves around cigarette sales, which constituted 88% of its revenues in 2024, with cigarettes making up nearly 98% of smokeable tobacco volumes [2] Financial Performance - Cigarette volumes have been declining for years, with a notable drop of 10.2% in 2024; however, price increases have mitigated revenue losses, resulting in a 1.3% revenue decline and a 3.4% rise in adjusted earnings [3] - The company raised its dividend in 2024, reflecting a high dividend yield of approximately 7%, which attracts dividend investors despite the negative trends in its core business [4] Market Trends - The number of smokers in the U.S. decreased from 34 million in 2019 to 28 million in 2024, while non-combustible product users remained stable at around 8 million; however, non-combustible-only consumers surged from 11 million to 18 million, marking a 60% growth [5][6] Strategic Missteps - Altria has made several strategic errors, including spinning off Philip Morris International, which left it vulnerable in a declining cigarette market and created new competition in the non-combustible space [7] - Investments in Juul and a marijuana company resulted in significant write-offs, and while the recent acquisition of NJOY shows better sales performance, it faces patent litigation with Juul [8] Growth Opportunities - Non-combustible products are increasingly important, yet Altria has not capitalized on this trend, with non-smokeable products accounting for only 11.7% of revenues in 2024, down from 12.4% in 2019, despite the non-combustible category growing significantly [9][10]

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