房子和黄金哪个更保值？从近十年的走势来分析

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the value retention of real estate versus gold over the past decade, highlighting the recent decline in real estate prices and the rise in gold prices, suggesting a shift in asset allocation preferences among ordinary investors. Real Estate Price Trends - From 2011 to 2015, real estate prices in 70 major cities in China experienced a stable fluctuation, with limited significant changes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1][2] - The period from 2015 to 2017 marked a rapid increase in real estate prices, with Shenzhen's average price soaring from 22,198 yuan/m² in 2014 to 51,935 yuan/m² in 2016 [3] - Between 2017 and 2019, government policies such as purchase and loan restrictions were implemented to stabilize the market, leading to a gradual narrowing of price increases [4] - The years 2020 to 2021 saw a resurgence in real estate prices, with 2021 recording a historical high in sales area at approximately 1.8 billion square meters [5] - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a downward adjustment phase due to economic cycles and demographic shifts, resulting in declining sales and prices [6] Gold Price Trends - From 2011 to 2015, gold prices peaked at 327 yuan/gram in 2011, followed by a decline to 235 yuan/gram by 2015 [7] - The period from 2016 to 2020 saw a fluctuating increase in gold prices, reaching 386 yuan/gram in 2020 due to heightened investor risk aversion [8] - The trend from 2021 to 2025 indicates a continuous rise in gold prices, with projections suggesting prices could reach 768 yuan/gram or higher by 2025, driven by global economic instability and inflation expectations [9][10] Comparative Analysis of Real Estate and Gold - Over the past decade, real estate has appreciated approximately 68%, while gold has increased by 89.5% [13] - Real estate has low liquidity with long transaction cycles, whereas gold offers high liquidity with immediate cash realization [13] - The holding costs for real estate are high due to taxes and maintenance, while gold has lower holding costs [13] - The entry threshold for real estate is high, requiring substantial down payments, while gold can be purchased starting from 1 gram [13] Recommendations for Ordinary Investors - For those considering real estate, it is advisable to have stable cash flow, focus on core areas in first-tier or strong second-tier cities, and have a need for self-occupation or long-term rental [12] - For those leaning towards gold, it is suitable for individuals with smaller capital or those concerned about economic volatility, as well as those lacking the capacity to manage real estate [12] - A balanced investment strategy could involve prioritizing real estate for self-occupation while considering a combination of core city properties and gold for investment, with a suggested allocation of 70% real estate to 30% gold [12]