Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, has caused significant market reactions, leading to a surge in demand for existing bonds that remain exempt from this tax [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The new tax policy is expected to create a "buy old bonds" trend, as investors prefer existing bonds that are exempt from the new tax [2][5]. - Following the announcement, the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rose but then fell, indicating a preference for holding existing tax-exempt bonds [2][5]. - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point, with current yields reported at 1.6975% and 1.919% respectively [2][5]. Group 2: Impact on Investment Strategies - The new tax policy is anticipated to enhance the predictability of the bond market, potentially leading to a shift in investment towards credit bonds and public funds that are not affected by the new tax [2][3][4]. - Institutions believe that the new regulations may lead to a widening yield spread between new and old bonds, with estimates suggesting a 5 to 10 basis point difference [2][3]. - Public funds are expected to benefit from the tax advantages compared to self-managed accounts, as they remain exempt from both income tax and VAT [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The restoration of VAT is seen as a move to guide funds from the interest rate market to the stock and credit markets, aligning with broader economic goals [5][6]. - The policy aims to reduce the distortions in the yield curve and interest rate risks that have accumulated due to the previous tax exemptions [6][7]. - The estimated tax revenue from the restoration of VAT is projected to be approximately 4 billion RMB in 2025 and 25 billion RMB in 2026, although this is considered limited compared to the overall tax revenue [6][7].
国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税 中、外资机构如何调整投资策略?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-06 16:59